Being interested in trading I decided to write this article to discuss whether trading was gambling as so many uninformed critics spurt out? Firstly I think it’s important to have a definition of gambling,
The definition of ‘gamble’ in the Oxford Dictionary of English is:
Verb [no obj.]
1. play games of chance for money; bet: he gambles on football.
[with obj.] bet (a sum of money): they gambled their money on cards.
2. take risky action in the hope of a desired result: he was gambling on the success of his satellite TV channel.
Noun [usu. in sing.]
1. an act of gambling.
2. a risky action undertaken with the hope of success: we decided to take a gamble and offer him a place on our staff.
Verb [no obj.]
1. play games of chance for money; bet: he gambles on football.
[with obj.] bet (a sum of money): they gambled their money on cards.
2. take risky action in the hope of a desired result: he was gambling on the success of his satellite TV channel.
Noun [usu. in sing.]
1. an act of gambling.
2. a risky action undertaken with the hope of success: we decided to take a gamble and offer him a place on our staff.
By looking at this definition, speculating on the market would certainly be gambling but so would making a piece of toast as there is always the slight chance the toaster electrocutes you. By the definition ‘risky action in the hope of a desired result’, would mean that our whole lives are a gamble as we encounter many risky situations such as just crossing a road every day.
The dictionary does not aid the debate in my opinion. Let us take two examples to define what actual gambling is. The first is the lottery, nearly all sane human beings will agree that this is 100% pure gambling as you have no idea what numbers will come up and there is no skill that can make you predict the numbers, it is pure luck. Now what is something that is not 100% gambling, well it must be the opposite, something we can control and when we this it will always happen. This would be something as simple as kicking a ball, when we apply force to the ball it will always move. So where is trading? Well its clearly not 100% luck because traders can use skill in order to try and predict what will happen in the market but of course its not 100% non gambling as the outcome is not guaranteed. All traders can do is increase their chance of winning, but by no means guarantee it, so trading is in a grey area!
Any form of gambling that relies solely on luck, (lottery, roulette, horse racing) will have a mathematical expectation of loosing in the long run. However if something is skill and you have an ‘edge’, it will mathematically mean that the person, such as a trader, who puts the hours in to minimize risk and leave little to luck, can expect a positive return over time. By this definition I think traders are not gamblers!
I think your way of describing the matter is as genuine as it can be considering your bias stand for trading(since you are pursuing the career of a money manager). But I would like to add to the matter that real skills which traders use to analyze stocks under the current market conditions are not able to be used because of its high market volatility.In the past 5 month,lets assume from the downgrading of the US and the beginning of the austerity program in Greece ,traders were able with a bit of luck,attention and previous experience(understanding the psychology and reaction of the markets to the response of markets)to become quit wealthy (those are guys like the one talking on BBC, who was dreaming about another recession).Therefore I agree that it is a grey area (splitting its time in between clever decisions in regular market conditions and white collar gambling in uncertain market condition).
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